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  #1641  
Old 12-02-2019, 01:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smoll View Post
They're in more trouble than us. TheI big strength has been their defending with Murray nicking the odd goal. They've recently let in 4 v Fulham and 3 to Burnley so something isn't right. Long may it continue
Brighton have had plenty of luck since promotion, no key injuries, crucial.

I believe their luck has or is running out, the clear handball by a Burnley player missed by the ref going some way to balancing the books.

Brighton have not been in a proper relegation scrap and as we know it takes a certain spirit to overcome it. Pressure is growing, can they deal with it?

Cardiff have more chance of surviving than Brighton and Southampton in my opinion.
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  #1642  
Old 12-02-2019, 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by LuieJack View Post
Thankfully Wolves pegged them back, but what it shows there is a cluster of teams including Palace fighting against what in reality is going to be ONE remaining relegation place. I still feel once the euphoria has settled and reality kicks in, it will be Cardiff who will drop.
I just feel Warnock will keep them up.
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  #1643  
Old 12-02-2019, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by aj4england View Post
Recent form considered, along with upcoming fixtures, Wolves equaliser was crucial.

Fulham and Huddersfield I would say are almost 100% down, meaning 1 place left. All teams left in it have a clear identity with perhaps us and then to a much lesser degree, Southampton as the more "footballing" sides. That said, generally just over 1 point per game keeps you up (39) so with that in mind, we are on course....just

The next 3 are key, with very few mini league bottom 6 playing each other (2 out of 18 games, Newcastle v Burnley, Burnley v Palace)
(Taken 7 points from last 5)
Cardiff V Watford
Cardiff v Everton
Wolves v Cardiff

(Taken 9 points from last 5)
Burnley v Spurs
Newcastle v Burnley
Burnley v Palace

(Taken 7 points from last 5)
Newcastle v Huddersfield
Newcastle v Burnley
West Ham v Newcastle

(Taken 5 points from last 5)
Leicester vs Palace
Palace v Man U
Burnley v Palace

(Taken 1 point from last 5) (Despite being one of the worst form teams 19th over lats 5 games, they now face form ranked #14, #18, #20)
Chelsea v Brighton
Leicester v Brighton
Brighton v Huddersfield

(Taken 8 points from last 5)
Arsenal v Saints
Saints v Fulham
Man Utd v Saints
nicely laid out - outside of the top two clubs, long term form is a reliable measure of the direction a team is going in - obviously there are a few exceptions to the rule (us away at Manchester City)
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  #1644  
Old 12-02-2019, 03:15 PM
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Chelsea v Brighton is postponed because of league cup final and a new date has not yet been set, so their next three games are against Leicester, Huddersfield then us

Which means Brighton could potentially drop another place or two before their next league gsme

Last edited by firesign; 12-02-2019 at 03:20 PM.
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  #1645  
Old 12-02-2019, 03:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Penstone Eagle View Post
Brighton have had plenty of luck since promotion, no key injuries, crucial.

I believe their luck has or is running out, the clear handball by a Burnley player missed by the ref going some way to balancing the books.

Brighton have not been in a proper relegation scrap and as we know it takes a certain spirit to overcome it. Pressure is growing, can they deal with it?

Cardiff have more chance of surviving than Brighton and Southampton in my opinion.
At start of season I thought Brighton would go down but think there early season form will be enough for them to stay up by end of season . Be different if they were where burnley cardiff Newcastle ect are now .
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  #1646  
Old 12-02-2019, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Spindle View Post
You are kidding? They are 3 points off the drop and are playing all but one of the teams below them. Each of those teams can play, except Huddersfield who are now playing without fear (should've beaten Arsenal).

Brighton are 9/1 for relegation, if I gambled I would bet on that.

They have us, Chelsea, Man City, Spurs, Arsenal and Wolves to play and I see maybe a point in that.
Not sure what's wrong with my post. I've just looked up the odds, and the bookies seem to agree with my assessment except for on Burnley.
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  #1647  
Old 12-02-2019, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by firesign View Post
Chelsea v Brighton is postponed because of league cup final and a new date has not yet been set, so their next three games are against Leicester, Huddersfield then us

Which means Brighton could potentially drop another place or two before their next league gsme
They could easily get 4-6 (or more) points from those and look very safe. Equally they could get none and look right in the mire.
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  #1648  
Old 13-02-2019, 10:59 PM
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Summary of Run In for Bottom 6-7 clubs
A Cardiff City Perpective


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  #1649  
Old Today, 02:35 PM
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37 points have averaged survival over the 23 seasons of 38 games.

35.78 points is the average for the team in 18th place at the end of the season.

Over the 23 seasons (with 38 games), the average number of points gained by clubs in the relegation zone, after 26 games played, has been 12.65 by the end of the season.

The highest gain was 22 points, and the lowest was 7.

On only 5 occasions so far, after 26 games, has the relegation zone moved by more than 14 points.

37 is the average number needed to stay up, and a higher number was required only 7 times.
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  #1650  
Old Today, 03:20 PM
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Both Cardiff and Brighton have to play 8 top 10 sides in their last 12 games.

Rather them than us as it means that they simply have to pick up points in their other remaining games including a number of wins.

A couple of defeats in these vital so-called easier games and they are as good as gone.

Brighton with just one win in their last 11 Premier League games should be very worried and their current 8/1 odds on being relegated should be shorter.

Palace who are 5 games unbeaten and who are playing well are 20/1 for relegation and hopefully soon we will not even be considered as a relegation team as we continue to pick up points on a regular basis.

COYP
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