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-   -   The NFL thread (https://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=137231)

elliott 05-12-2012 10:13 PM

Watching Undefeated. Absolutely cracking documentary, well worth trying to find from somewhere.

ardeo 05-12-2012 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saxoneagle
1yd line and I'd go for it pretty much every time in the first 3Qs. Don't back your offence to get 1yd? You need a new offence. Worse case? You give the ball to the opposition on their own goal line.

Worst case: vick fumble or pick returned for td.

Agree in most cases, especially the field position argument, imagine there are a high percentage of 3 and outs.

pauldrulez 05-12-2012 10:27 PM

4th and Goal from the 1? I go for it every time.

4th and <5 from anywhere between the 42 and 35, I go for it.

4th and 1 from anywhere starting at my own 40, I go for it.

Funk Butter 05-12-2012 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saxoneagle
XP. Then your opponents need to score +2. Two pt conversion percentage is about one in three, right, compared to XP of almost 100%.

2pt% is historically around 48% in the NFL, but it's only been around since 1994. I'm sure it needs closer examination, but I am making the assumption that even if I miss the 2pt conversion, I'll be up by 7 and the other coach won't try to go for 2 for the win so at least we go to OT. (I think that has only happened once in the NFL where a coach went for 2 after scoring the TD to get within a point) So you have the positives of making it a 2 possession game minus the negatives of missing the 2pt conversion versus the probability of the other team scoring the TD and making the 2pt conversion to tie. To me, it's a guarantee of victory or some % chance of going to overtime versus some % chance of going to overtime. Just have to figure out those numbers.

ardeo 05-12-2012 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elliott
Watching Undefeated. Absolutely cracking documentary, well worth trying to find from somewhere.

Yea heard that was really good on the Rich Eisen podcast in the offseason.

saxoneagle 06-12-2012 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Funk Butter
2pt% is historically around 48% in the NFL, but it's only been around since 1994. I'm sure it needs closer examination, but I am making the assumption that even if I miss the 2pt conversion, I'll be up by 7 and the other coach won't try to go for 2 for the win so at least we go to OT. (I think that has only happened once in the NFL where a coach went for 2 after scoring the TD to get within a point) So you have the positives of making it a 2 possession game minus the negatives of missing the 2pt conversion versus the probability of the other team scoring the TD and making the 2pt conversion to tie. To me, it's a guarantee of victory or some % chance of going to overtime versus some % chance of going to overtime. Just have to figure out those numbers.

Indeed, so making it an 8pt game gives you the better chance of winning than it being a 7pt game. Obviously a 9pt game is better but it still isnt a guaranteed victory, is it? Who was it who scored twice in a matter of seconds a coupleof years ago to comeback and win?

Also, the new OT rules must cloud it a bit but again, new thing, so not much data on whether winning the toss, etc makes you more likely to win/lose...

Benzhiyi 06-12-2012 09:18 AM

Cowboys against Bills I think, Sax. And it was mental!

saxoneagle 06-12-2012 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benzhiyi
Cowboys against Bills I think, Sax. And it was mental!

That's the one! It was a crazy end to a game!

Funk Butter 06-12-2012 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saxoneagle
Indeed, so making it an 8pt game gives you the better chance of winning than it being a 7pt game. Obviously a 9pt game is better but it still isnt a guaranteed victory, is it? Who was it who scored twice in a matter of seconds a coupleof years ago to comeback and win?

Also, the new OT rules must cloud it a bit but again, new thing, so not much data on whether winning the toss, etc makes you more likely to win/lose...

Well, I used this website http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php and plugged in the different scenarios. I assumed that your opponent gets the ball at his own 25 after the kickoff. With a 7 point lead, your win probability is 88%. With an 8 point lead, it's 86%. With a 9 point lead, it's 96%. I have no idea why you have a higher probability with a 7 point lead than an 8 other than something is screwy in the calculations.

saxoneagle 06-12-2012 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Funk Butter
Well, I used this website http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php and plugged in the different scenarios. I assumed that your opponent gets the ball at his own 25 after the kickoff. With a 7 point lead, your win probability is 88%. With an 8 point lead, it's 86%. With a 9 point lead, it's 96%. I have no idea why you have a higher probability with a 7 point lead than an 8 other than something is screwy in the calculations.

Does the win % just include wins in regulation? Otherwise The stats don't make sense completely because OT throws in more variables (like another coin toss)... So I assume just regulation which makes the 8pt probability a statistical anomaly.

Funk Butter 06-12-2012 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saxoneagle
Does the win % just include wins in regulation? Otherwise The stats don't make sense completely because OT throws in more variables (like another coin toss)... So I assume just regulation which makes the 8pt probability a statistical anomaly.

Quote:

Win Probability (WP) – The probability that a team will win a game in progress, given a particular combination of circumstances including score, time remaining, field position, down, and to go distance. WP is based on a model built on actual outcomes of NFL games from recent seasons that featured similar circumstances.
What that doesn't say is whether WP is completely dependent on previous data or incorporates some predictive formula as well. I assume it's a combination. Based on that there must be more occasions where teams down 8 points have won than teams down 7 points with 2 minutes to go.

Funk Butter 06-12-2012 07:26 PM

Didn't take me long to find a game where a team won after being 8 points down with 2 minutes to go. http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflar...p?gameid=17781 This was a game from 2001, Chicago scored right at the end of regulation and made the 2pt. Then Mike Brown intercepted Jeff Garcia on the first play in overtime for a TD. What's interesting about that is the next week Cleveland was up 21-7 at Chicago with 30 seconds to go and lost. http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflar...p?gameid=17786 Again, Mike Brown returned an interception for a TD in OT.


Funk Butter 07-12-2012 03:21 AM

http://media.zenfs.com/en/blogs/sptu...o_calendar.jpg
Lions make an excellent choice for cover boy.

pauldrulez 07-12-2012 12:36 PM

Brilliant!

Almost as good as Freedman being Mr. May in our own 2013 calendar

Benzhiyi 08-12-2012 09:39 AM

van Persie is Mr December in this year's Arsenal calendar.

pauldrulez 08-12-2012 11:27 AM

Brilliant.

Ben, why is your DT complaining about the Pats running the ball? Especially when he was factually inaccurate!

pauldrulez 08-12-2012 09:23 PM

Tragic news in Dallas.

jazman 09-12-2012 12:28 PM

Very sad situation indeed.

pauldrulez 09-12-2012 03:43 PM

No prison sentence is going to come close to the pain being suffered by the driver.

Funk Butter 09-12-2012 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pauldrulez
No prison sentence is going to come close to the pain being suffered by the driver.

The same happened here in Atlanta with the Thrashers. Dany Heatley killed his best friend and teammate in a car crash. He didn't go to jail, but he couldn't live in Atlanta anymore. He asked to be traded and they did. The Thrashers were an up and coming young team before that accident and it basically ended up starting the decline which saw the Thrashers leave town.


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