CPFC BBS - The NFL thread

CPFC BBS (https://www.cpfc.org/forums/index.php)

- World of Sport (https://www.cpfc.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=15)

- - The NFL thread (https://www.cpfc.org/forums/showthread.php?t=137231)

Quote:

Originally Posted by jazman

Ha! It's not just me posting on there mind, the guys that run it in the States get the final sign off but I'm the first UK Cowboys fan to get one approved... Chuffed with that :p

Is it on lifeyre or Bloguin? .... Try out www.eagleseyeblog.com

The guy who does it (Tom Jackson) is a decent fella!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edenbridge Eagle In Exile

Is it on lifeyre or Bloguin? .... Try out www.eagleseyeblog.com

The guy who does it (Tom Jackson) is a decent fella!!!

I'm in the hands of the Yanks here so I have no idea. We were invited to write some stuff from a UK fans perspective which has come from the good work on Twitter ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by jazman

I'm in the hands of the Yanks here so I have no idea. We were invited to write some stuff from a UK fans perspective which has come from the good work on Twitter ...

Good luck with the blog Jaz!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edenbridge Eagle In Exile

Good luck with the blog Jaz!!

Cheers fella, much appreciated.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jazman

Cheers fella, much appreciated.

Do you still want me to sign up ... .... Is there an away end section? Lol!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swanny32

Already tried that one with my mrs, it didn't work.

You need to consider purchasing some trousers to wear once in a while ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edenbridge Eagle In Exile

Do you still want me to sign up ... .... Is there an away end section? Lol!!

:D :D :D :D :D :o

Quote:

Originally Posted by saxoneagle

You need to consider purchasing some trousers to wear once in a while ;)

Hahahaha like my skirt too much to wear trousers.....it's easier this way....all I want is an easy life.

I've always wondered about the value of throwing deep on a 3rd down from around the 40yd line of your opponent. Well somebody wondered about something about sacks around that area:

Quote:

Stafford mixed big plays on Thursday with disappointing misses. His most notable impact, however, was when he failed on a pair of subtle plays that often get lauded as ones that skip the stat sheet. During the fourth quarter, Stafford failed to protect his seven-point lead by making a pair of situational blunders. In each case, his offense was facing a third-down play from the Houston 36-yard line. An incompletion would give the Lions the option to take a 53-yard field goal, one that would be on the very edges of Jason Hanson's functional range as a kicker. A short checkdown, even one that didn't have a prayer of turning into a first down, would have been enough to create a reasonable field goal opportunity for the veteran Lions kicker. Outside of a turnover, the worst thing Stafford could do was take a sack that pushed the Lions out of field goal range and forced them to punt. Amazingly, that's what happened both times, with J.J. Watt producing huge sacks on both occasions. Had Stafford picked up even four yards on either of the two third-down plays, the Lions would have been able to take a 49-yarder that Hanson would have had a prayer of hitting, one that would have pushed them up 10 points and forced the Texans into full-on desperation mode. Instead, the Texans were able to get the ball back on punts in each case and scored on their second drive, tying the game up at 31-all. It was a huge mental mistake, one that significantly harmed Detroit's chances of keeping their lead.

You often hear announcers talk about those plays as something mysterious and unquantifiable, but the truth is that they're just as easy to count as any other. I had anecdotally referred to Sam Bradford as the king of those sacks-out-of-field-goal-range for a while now, even calling them Bradfords, but Stafford taking two of them in the fourth quarter of one key game made me question myself. Was Stafford really the king of those sacks? I went back and used the wonderful Pro-Football-Reference.com play index to figure it out. I took every quarterback's passes from 2000 to 2012 (not including Sunday's games) and analyzed what they did in two-score games on third down between the 25-yard line and the 36-yard line of the opposition.

As it turns out, Stafford doesn't have a track record for taking that sort of sack. In fact, his two sacks in the fourth quarter were the first time he'd ever taken such a range-defeating sack as a pro, having managed to avoid them in his previous 31 third-down dropbacks. Bradford was way up there, thanks to five sacks on just 32 dropbacks; his 15.6 percent takedown clip was the second-highest rate for any passer with 30 dropbacks or more on third down in field goal range, trailing only the statue commonly confused for Ben Roethlisberger:

Code:

Player             Dropbacks         Sacks         Sack Rate

Roethlisberger         128         22         17.2%

Sam Bradford         32         5         15.6%

Michael Vick         76         11         14.5%

K. Stewart         37         5         13.5%

Marc Bulger         84         10         11.9%

Vince Young         42         5         11.9%

Alex Smith         62         7         11.3%

David Carr         63         7         11.1%

Kyle Boller         54         6         11.1%

Kyle Orton         56         6         10.7%

C. Pennington         75         8         10.7%

It's a safe play to run the ball up the gut or check down for a small gain and easier shot at a field goal, but I think it shows the willingness and determination of the QB and their relevant teams to get a first down and really put some pressure on the D. Adds for some excitement as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swanny32

I think what he was concentrating on was reasonable FG chances that turn into remote FG chances or punts because the QB takes a sack.

Ok, how about this for a hypothetical situation. You score a TD with 2 minutes left in the game to put your team up by 7 points. Do you kick the XP or go for 2 points?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Funk Butter

Ok, how about this for a hypothetical situation. You score a TD with 2 minutes left in the game to put your team up by 7 points. Do you kick the XP or go for 2 points?

Depends how much faith you have in your D really, do you trust them to stop the opposition from driving down the field and scoring and do you have faith in them stopping a 2 point conversion IF the other team score. If it's the Seattle/San Fran D then I kick the extra point....if it's our D then I go for 2.

Interesting stuff Funk, I wonder if he looked into turnovers too or missed FGs.

I had similar, if slightly reversed, thoughts about teams play calling becoming very negative when they get into or near FG range at the end of a game or in OT. Teams seem to just run the ball up the gut and sometimes lose yards and make the kick a more difficult one than needs be. Times like that a simple play action pass out to your FB would nearly always work for a decent gain. Also seems that many team don't want to risk going for the TD to win when there is a good chance of a FG to tie.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ardeo

Then this one is for you: Unicorns, The Tooth Fairy, the Cowboys, and Field Goal Range

Quote:

Originally Posted by Funk Butter

Then this one is for you: Unicorns, The Tooth Fairy, the Cowboys, and Field Goal Range

Ha nice, where do you find all these articles? You always seem to come up with interesting stuff :p

I guess its just a case of defensive minded coaches not wanting to risk losing. Totally agree that closer is better for FGs and that FG range is inaccurate.

Amusingly Alex Henery this season has a higher FG % (95.7%) than PAT % (95%), just to show that nothing is certain with kickers!

Quote:

Originally Posted by ardeo

Remember that college gameday at christines last year? Never thought i would see so many missed kicks!

Quote:

Originally Posted by ardeo

I'm always looking for ways statistics can improve sports. Clearly, NFL coaches have developed a culture of playing it safe. The worst thing to happen in the last 5 years to combat that was the Patriots not converting 4th and 2 from their own 28 against the Colts and the Falcons not converting on 4th and 1 from their own territory in overtime last year. It seems to justify all the old fashioned thinkers. Those people that punt on 4th and 1 from the opponents 40 yard line or kick a FG from the opponents 1 yard line in a 0-0 game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Funk Butter

Ok, how about this for a hypothetical situation. You score a TD with 2 minutes left in the game to put your team up by 7 points. Do you kick the XP or go for 2 points?

XP. Then your opponents need to score +2. Two pt conversion percentage is about one in three, right, compared to XP of almost 100%.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Funk Butter

1yd line and I'd go for it pretty much every time in the first 3Qs. Don't back your offence to get 1yd? You need a new offence. Worse case? You give the ball to the opposition on their own goal line.